AMRC (Ameresco, Inc.) — AI Stock Analysis & Recommendation

Research of September 3, 2026 · Industrials / Construction - Special Trade Contractors

TradeFlare's AI research teams rate AMRC a HOLD. The latest price is $20.89.

The research plan

• Entry: $22.77
• Time horizon: days

The current market and stock conditions do not warrant a buy.

Why

Despite strong insider buying and a solid backlog, the stock presents too many risk factors to initiate a buy. The high risk score, coupled with neutral technicals showing bearish pressure and negative earnings growth, makes this a HOLD. The mandatory rules, specifically Rule 1.A, also point towards a HOLD as the risk score is 9 and fewer than 3 directional teams are bullish.

What could push AMRC higher

• Significant insider buying from an executive.
• A substantial backlog of $6.73 billion provides revenue visibility.
• Positive year-over-year revenue growth of 9.1%.

Key risks for AMRC

• High realized volatility and significant historical drawdown.
• High financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 190.15% and negative free cash flow.
• Technicals show short to medium-term bearish pressure with the stock below key moving averages.

What each AI research team found

Fundamental team: Neutral · valuation: fair

AMRC presents a mixed fundamental picture with strong revenue visibility and analyst optimism, but significant concerns regarding negative cash flow and high leverage. The recent insider buying adds a positive catalyst, but the company's ability to convert its backlog into profitable cash flow remains a key challenge. The neutral verdict reflects the balance between growth potential and financial risks, with the...

• Significant backlog of $6.73 billion provides strong revenue visibility, but negative operating and free cash flow (TTM) indicate cash burn.
• Revenue growth is positive (9.1% YoY), but earnings growth is negative (-25% YoY), highlighting profitability challenges.
• High debt-to-equity ratio (190.15%) signals substantial financial leverage and risk.

Technical team: Neutral

All team members agree on a neutral outlook, with the stock consolidating between support at $21.75 and resistance at $25.06. While momentum and patterns suggest a potential short-term bounce, bearish signals from moving averages and volume distribution warrant caution. The current price near support offers a defined risk/reward scenario.

• The stock is in a sideways trend, trading between support at $21.75 and resistance at $25.06, with short-term bearish indicators suggesting caution.
• The stock is consolidating near support with low volume, suggesting a neutral outlook until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs.
• The price is consolidating near support with neutral momentum across all indicators, suggesting a potential sideways trend with a slight bias towards a bounce if support holds.

Sentiment team: Neutral

Ameresco's sentiment is currently neutral, with strong insider buying and a solid project backlog providing a bullish undercurrent. However, this is offset by significant historical stock declines, recent negative news such as the CFO resignation, and mixed analyst/institutional views, leading to a stable but cautious outlook.

• Ameresco's news sentiment is neutral, characterized by strong insider buying and a robust backlog, counterbalanced by recent stock price declines, CFO departure, and historical valuation concerns. (-0.01)
• Ameresco exhibits a neutral sentiment, characterized by conflicting signals of significant insider buying and positive retail investor chatter against a backdrop of substantial historical stock declines and recent negative news impacting the industrials sector. (0)
• Ameresco (AMRC) exhibits a neutral sentiment driven by a mix of insider buying and positive long-term industry outlook, countered by recent stock performance concerns and mixed institutional signals. (-0.042)

Risk team: High

AMRC presents a very high-risk profile due to extreme volatility, significant drawdowns, high financial leverage, and sensitivity to market and sector-specific factors. The combination of these risks, amplified by frequent large price gaps and high short interest, necessitates a very cautious approach with a small position size and robust risk management strategies.

• Extreme Realized Volatility and Drawdown: AMRC exhibits exceptionally high realized volatility (75.39% annualized over 20 days) and a substantial 1-year maximum drawdown of -88.66%, indicating significant price instability and potential for rapid losses.
• High Systematic Risk (Beta) and Idiosyncratic Volatility: The stock has a high beta (1.83-2.58) and a low R-squared (0.13), meaning it is highly sensitive to market movements and driven significantly by company-specific factors, amplifying both gains and losses.
• High Financial Leverage and Negative Cash Flow: A very high debt-to-equity ratio (190.15%) coupled with consistently negative free cash flow suggests significant financial strain and increased risk, especially in a cyclical industry.

AMRC at a glance

Market value	$1.1B
Price / earnings	20.0
Revenue growth (year over year)	28.8%
Profit margin	3.0%
Debt / equity	1.45

Every AI call on AMRC since August 13, 2026, and what happened next (5 calls) →

Research of September 3, 2026 · AI-generated analysis for educational purposes, can be wrong, not financial advice.