TradeFlare's AI research teams analysed TSM on 24 market nights between May 12, 2026 and October 9, 2026. Each row is that night's verdict, the price that day, and how the price actually moved afterwards — wins and misses alike. Nothing is edited after the fact.
| Date | Verdict | Price | Target / stop | 5 days later | 20 days later | Why (that night) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 9, 2026 | BUY | $457.99 | $517.00 / $412.20 | not yet | not yet | The insider buying is a high-conviction signal, and the bullish technical and fundamental teams suggest a medium-term upward trend. |
| September 9, 2026 | BUY | $439.00 | $482.90 / $395.10 | -4.0% | +8.5% | The insider buying signal suggests a medium-term conviction, and the technicals are currently neutral, requiring time to develop a clear trend. |
| September 7, 2026 | BUY | $428.91 | $471.80 / $385.02 | -5.8% | +9.9% | The insider buying signal suggests a medium-term conviction, and the neutral technicals require time to resolve. |
| August 25, 2026 | BUY | $410.12 | $460.00 / $364.50 | -0.8% | +7.0% | The insider buying suggests a medium-term conviction, and the technicals are neutral, requiring time to resolve. |
| August 22, 2026 | BUY | $418.95 | $451.10 / $377.06 | +1.3% | +10.2% | The insider buying signal is a strong short-to-medium term catalyst, and the fundamental outlook supports a multi-week holding period. |
| August 17, 2026 | BUY | $426.35 | — / — | -4.8% | -4.0% | The stock is currently consolidating near resistance with mixed technical signals, necessitating a wait-and-see approach. |
| August 14, 2026 | BUY | $430.49 | — / — | -1.7% | -2.0% | The stock is currently in a neutral technical range, and while fundamentals and sentiment are bullish, the high risk score and lack of clear technical direction prevent a buy recommendation. |
| August 13, 2026 | BUY | $429.15 | $467.50 / $382.50 | -3.4% | +0.6% | The fundamental and sentiment tailwinds suggest a sustained upward move, but technical consolidation requires patience. |
| August 12, 2026 | BUY | $422.06 | $451.10 / $376.20 | -4.0% | -0.3% | The strong fundamental and sentiment signals suggest a medium-term upward trend, while technicals indicate consolidation before a potential breakout. |
| August 6, 2026 | BUY | $414.00 | $476.10 / $351.90 | +2.9% | -0.3% | The insider buying signal suggests a medium-term conviction in the stock's appreciation. |
| August 4, 2026 | BUY | $406.11 | $452.13 / $365.50 | +1.2% | -0.8% | The insider buying and strong fundamental/sentiment signals suggest a medium-term upward trend. |
| July 31, 2026 | BUY | $403.31 | $451.74 / $362.98 | +3.9% | +3.3% | The insider buying, strong fundamentals, and positive sentiment suggest a medium-term upward trend. |
| July 29, 2026 | BUY | $392.31 | — / — | +10.5% | +11.5% | The current market regime is neutral, and while TSM has strong fundamental and sentiment backing, the bearish technicals and high risk score prevent a buy recommendation. |
| July 27, 2026 | BUY | $403.41 | $478.07 / $342.89 | +1.8% | +2.8% | The insider buying signal suggests a medium-term conviction in the stock's performance. |
| July 23, 2026 | BUY | $421.21 | — / — | -3.0% | +0.1% | The technicals are bearish and the market regime is neutral, overriding the bullish fundamental and sentiment signals for a HOLD. |
| July 21, 2026 | BUY | $402.30 | $482.76 / $362.07 | -7.6% | -2.6% | The post-earnings drift (PEAD) signal suggests a sustained upward move. |
| July 15, 2026 | BUY | $420.39 | $456.50 / $373.50 | +0.4% | +2.3% | The insider buying is a strong short-to-medium term signal, and the fundamental and sentiment tailwinds suggest potential for upward price movement. |
| July 13, 2026 | BUY | $434.11 | $487.80 / $390.70 | -4.6% | -0.7% | The insider buying, strong fundamentals, and positive sentiment suggest a medium-term upward trend. |
| July 2, 2026 | BUY | $444.23 | $476.72 / $399.81 | -0.0% | -6.9% | The insider buying signal suggests a medium-term conviction, and the technical setup requires time to resolve. |
| June 26, 2026 | BUY | $434.99 | $464.25 / $391.50 | +4.5% | -7.7% | The insider buying signal suggests a medium-term conviction, and the fundamental and sentiment teams are bullish. |
| June 24, 2026 | BUY | $436.39 | $468.48 / $392.75 | +0.8% | -5.7% | The insider buying signal and strong fundamental/sentiment support suggest a medium-term upward trend. |
| June 17, 2026 | BUY Published signal · reached target +10.5% |
$425.83 | $450.00 / $383.25 | +0.7% | -7.8% | The insider buying suggests a medium-term conviction, and the technicals suggest a potential breakout in the near term. |
| May 20, 2026 | HOLD | $392.61 | — / — | +5.8% | +15.1% | Continued strong demand for AI and HPC chips driving revenue and earnings growth. |
| May 12, 2026 | BUY | $404.54 | $468.87 / $364.09 | -1.2% | +2.9% | The insider buying provides a high-conviction catalyst for a medium-term move, supported by strong fundamentals. |
Prices are daily closes. "Days later" counts trading days from the close on the day of the call. A HOLD is not a recommendation to buy; only published signals are tracked with a target and stop on the public record. How the research works. Updated October 14, 2026. AI-generated research for educational purposes — it can be wrong and is not financial advice.