TradeFlare's AI research teams analysed SMCI on 15 market nights between May 7, 2026 and September 24, 2026. Each row is that night's verdict, the price that day, and how the price actually moved afterwards — wins and misses alike. Nothing is edited after the fact.
| Date | Verdict | Price | Target / stop | 5 days later | 20 days later | Why (that night) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24, 2026 | HOLD | $41.44 | $47.11 / $35.22 | +1.0% | not yet | The PEAD signal suggests potential for continued drift, but the high risk and mixed technicals warrant a cautious approach. |
| August 18, 2026 | BUY | $38.28 | — / — | +2.8% | -1.5% | The market regime is neutral, and while SMCI has strong fundamentals, the technicals are neutral and the risk score is high, preventing a buy recommendation. |
| August 17, 2026 | BUY | $39.84 | — / — | -8.1% | -6.9% | Continued strong demand for AI infrastructure driving revenue and earnings growth. |
| August 14, 2026 | BUY | $39.16 | — / — | -6.5% | -7.8% | Short-term trading opportunities are being evaluated based on market conditions and risk parameters. |
| August 13, 2026 | BUY | $37.61 | — / — | -6.8% | +2.4% | The current market regime is neutral, and while SMCI has positive fundamental drivers, the technicals are neutral and the risk profile is high, preventing a buy recommendation. |
| June 4, 2026 | BUY | $47.42 | — / — | -31.8% | -42.0% | Continued AI deal flow and product announcements driving demand. |
| June 3, 2026 | BUY | $50.17 | $58.63 / $40.60 | -38.3% | -42.6% | The post-earnings drift signal suggests momentum could persist for several weeks. |
| May 29, 2026 | HOLD | $41.30 | — / — | -9.7% | -38.9% | Continued strong demand for AI servers driving revenue growth. |
| May 28, 2026 | HOLD | $38.19 | — / — | +13.6% | -25.8% | Continued AI demand driving revenue growth. |
| May 26, 2026 | BUY | $35.58 | — / — | +35.2% | -12.5% | Continued strong demand for AI infrastructure driving revenue growth. |
| May 25, 2026 | BUY | $35.58 | — / — | +35.2% | -12.5% | The market regime is neutral, and while there's a post-earnings drift signal, the high risk score and lack of bullish directional teams prevent a buy. |
| May 12, 2026 | HOLD | $33.52 | — / — | -6.8% | -10.7% | Continued strong AI server demand driving revenue and earnings growth. |
| May 11, 2026 | HOLD | $35.37 | — / — | -8.0% | +21.2% | Continued strong demand for AI infrastructure driving revenue growth. |
| May 8, 2026 | HOLD | $33.62 | — / — | -12.2% | +24.4% | Continued strong demand for AI infrastructure driving revenue growth. |
| May 7, 2026 | HOLD | $34.66 | — / — | -1.8% | +23.9% | Continued strong demand for AI and HPC infrastructure. |
Prices are daily closes. "Days later" counts trading days from the close on the day of the call. A HOLD is not a recommendation to buy; only published signals are tracked with a target and stop on the public record. How the research works. Updated October 14, 2026. AI-generated research for educational purposes — it can be wrong and is not financial advice.