TradeFlare's AI research teams analysed NVAX on 11 market nights between April 17, 2026 and October 13, 2026. Each row is that night's verdict, the price that day, and how the price actually moved afterwards — wins and misses alike. Nothing is edited after the fact.
| Date | Verdict | Price | Target / stop | 5 days later | 20 days later | Why (that night) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 13, 2026 | HOLD | $12.66 | — / — | not yet | not yet | The current setup does not warrant a buy recommendation due to conflicting team signals and risk factors. |
| October 12, 2026 | HOLD | $12.75 | — / — | not yet | not yet | The current setup does not warrant a BUY recommendation due to conflicting team signals and risk factors. |
| September 10, 2026 | HOLD | $9.85 | — / — | +7.5% | +18.4% | The current market regime and stock-specific fundamentals do not support a directional trade. |
| September 8, 2026 | HOLD | $10.22 | — / — | -9.4% | +11.1% | The current setup does not warrant a trade. |
| September 7, 2026 | HOLD | $10.22 | — / — | -9.4% | +11.1% | The current setup does not warrant a trade. |
| September 4, 2026 | HOLD | $10.34 | — / — | -6.2% | +22.9% | The stock is being held due to a lack of conviction and overriding risk factors. |
| August 21, 2026 | BUY | $8.42 | — / — | +3.6% | +16.4% | The current market regime and the stock's internal signals do not support a directional trade. |
| June 12, 2026 | BUY | $9.03 | — / — | +1.4% | -5.2% | Potential positive news regarding the licensing of Novavax's adjuvant technology. |
| May 12, 2026 | BUY | $9.50 | — / — | -7.5% | -11.0% | Continued positive momentum from the post-earnings gap and drift. |
| May 11, 2026 | BUY | $10.11 | — / — | -6.0% | -8.7% | Continued positive momentum from Q1 earnings beat and strategic licensing model. |
| April 17, 2026 | BUY | $8.64 | $9.92 / $7.78 | -7.0% | +2.5% | To allow time for the insider buying to potentially influence the stock price, while acknowledging the high risk. |
Prices are daily closes. "Days later" counts trading days from the close on the day of the call. A HOLD is not a recommendation to buy; only published signals are tracked with a target and stop on the public record. How the research works. Updated October 14, 2026. AI-generated research for educational purposes — it can be wrong and is not financial advice.